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10-14-2016, 06:35 PM #1
- Join Date
- Mar 2016
Apple Supplier TSMC Hints At 2019-2020 Apple AR Device
If you thought that a Apple virtual reality or augmented reality device would be here within a matter of one or two years, you may want to think again. Although it can not be ruled out that Apple may enter the VR space sooner rather than later, judging from recent comments made by Tim Cook, relating to AR's future dominance over VR, and one of Apple's biggest suppliers, TSMC, it appears as if we may have to wait 3-4 years for such a device.
"We expect our growth momentum will shift from mobile chips to high performance computing-related areas ranging from artificial intelligence, augmented reality, virtual reality, to data centers by 2019," said Mark Liu President of TSMC.
Considering augmented reality has not even hit the market yet, if Apple did decide to forego VR altogether, then a 2019-2020 time frame for a possible product release does seem reasonable. It will be interesting though to see if Apple may be sort of forced to enter the VR space as the market rapidly develops over the next 12-18 months and Google Android OS continues to build quite a VR ecosystem.
What do you guys think?
10-14-2016, 11:02 PM #2
In spite of complaints that they're "behind" because they haven't introduced something by now, if their plan is to enter the AR market in around 3-4 years time, they'll be *right* on time for actually participating in what is still a very primitive market.
Today we have devices like HoloLens (which is far too expensive for consumer use), Moverio (which is in the right price range but has some usability issues that concern me in the near term), ODG (which is "nice" but nothing like a device that will change the world), and "mobile mixed reality" which is a great space to explore but not exactly breaking new ground in UX. Each and every one of these misses what I think are essential components of the others. Mobile spatial SDKs are slow, have a lot of drift, and fail under various complex conditions. HoloLens is all but incapable of realtime image recognition (Vuforia *wrecks* it right now). Moverio requires a touchpad device which is awkward for an experience you're meant to wander around and interact in.
Magic Leap may release something - behind the flashy (ridiculous) promo videos, they *do* have something interesting in the lab - but that's an unknown quantity. Either way - it's ultimately a magical combination of user experience and marketing that drives adoption.
I doubt Apple will let themselves be "forced" into anything. There is a whole universe of tech things that they don't care about - VR could easily be one of them. It'll be 5-10 years before VR is an essential product - I don't mean it won't make money or gain popularity, but its not going to be like owning a smartphone for quite a while. Owning a smartphone took a while to be a thing, too. Personally, I'm focusing primarily on Augmented/Mixed Reality R&D - because I'd rather be the guy on the top of Everest, with his tent pitched, a fire going, and dinner on, than be racing to get up the mountain. I feel like Apple is doing the same thing.
Last edited by eddieoffermann; 10-14-2016 at 11:04 PM.
10-19-2016, 01:08 PM #3
- Join Date
- Mar 2016
I think this would be a mistake by Apple if they intend to wait 3-4 years before releasing a product. Too many other companies will have made it to market by then.
11-07-2016, 01:46 PM #4
I can't see how they could wait until 2020 in order to release an AR device. I expect we see something sooner, perhaps evolving to a complete solution by 2020.Comments posted as plain-colored text are my own and not necessarily endorsed by VRTalk.
Comments posted in blue are official Moderator comments.
12-15-2016, 07:45 PM #5
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- Apr 2016
I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple wait it out. In reality mobile VR is simply not that great when compared to the alternatives like the Rift, Vive and PSVR. By 2020 smartphones will probably have processing power closer to what some of the high end PCs have today, at least when concerning VR.
Apple is not known for releasing a product that simply "gets the job done". They like going all out and they like waiting until their product is something that the masses have an interest in purchases.
12-16-2016, 03:56 AM #6
Somehow I missed this thread, but yeah, I think 2020 works just fine for Apple. Once the tech developed to to point where it's possible for VR to be something people use everyday, then Apple just needs to have the most appealing version for the mass market and they can start taking the market pretty quick. That's of course assuming that modern apple could release the iPhone of VR devices, which might be a stretch.Comments posted as plain-colored text are my own and not necessarily endorsed by VRTalk, Comments posted in blue are official Moderator comments.
01-03-2017, 01:50 PM #7
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- Jun 2016
In reality it isn't about VR. I don't think VR will make or break Apple. It will be about augmented reality, and the company that is able to bring AR to a smartphone first will stand to be a huge winner. I think 2019 would work for Apple if they can bring a truly interactive AR device to market. It will definitely be a giant hurdle though -- one that will require a transparent smartphone.